The stat guardians at IDC are among the most reliable sources for keeping track of the latest developments in the smartphone market, but we’ve got to say their forecasts haven’t always benefited from the same accuracy. It’s with this disclaimer that we present you the world of 2015 as seen through the IDC prism. In just four years’ time, says the data, Windows Phone 7 (or whatever version it reaches by then) will have ascended to occupy a fifth of the market and second spot overall behind Android, whose leading position is expected to stabilize somewhere around the 45 percent mark. Apple and RIM are projected to hold steady with shares close to where they are today. It has to be humbling for the IDC, which predicted Symbian would continue to dominate all the way into 2013, to now have to foretell of its almost complete extinction (a mere 0.2 percent) and total irrelevance in the smartphone market. Alas, while the new prediction sounds very reasonable today, four years of unknown unknowns is a mighty long time to try and forecast through, and we have a feeling we’ll be looking back and chuckling at this within a few short months — probably (hopefully!) in the midst of a massive webOS revival.
IDC fails to learn from previous mistakes, issues 2015 smartphone predictions originally appeared on Engadget on Tue, 29 Mar 2011 09:19:00 EDT. Please see our terms for use of feeds.